by Prashant Gopal and Shobhana Chandra

Bloomberg

They were fed up with Seattle’s home bidding wars. They were only in their late 20s but had already lost two battles and were ready to renew with their landlord. Then, in May, their agent called.

Suddenly, Redfin’s Shoshana Godwin told the couple, sellers were getting jumpy, even here in the hottest of markets. Homes that should have vanished in days were sitting on the market for weeks. There was a three-bedroom fixer-upper just north of the city going for $550,000, down from more than $600,000. They made the leap in early June and had closed by the end of the month, for list price.

The U.S. housing market — particularly in cutthroat areas like Seattle, Silicon Valley and Austin, Texas — appears to be headed for the broadest slowdown in years. Buyers are getting squeezed by rising mortgage rates and by prices climbing about twice as fast as incomes, and there’s only so far they can stretch.

“This could be the very beginning of a turning point,” said Robert Shiller, a Nobel Prize-winning economist who is famed for warning of the dot-com and housing bubbles, in an interview. He stressed that he isn’t ready to make that call yet.

The Data

A slew of figures released over the past three days gives ample evidence of at least a cooling. 

Existing-home sales dropped in June for a third straight month. Purchases of new homes are at their slowest pace in eight months. Inventory, which plunged for years, has begun to grow again as buyers move to the sidelines, sapping the fuel for surging home values. Prices for existing homes climbed 6.4 percent in May, the smallest year-over-year gain since early 2017, and have gained the least over three months since 2012, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

“Home prices are plateauing,” said Ed Stansfield, chief property economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. “People are saying: Let’s just bide our time, there’s no great rush. If we wait six or nine months we’re not going to lose out on getting a foot on the ladder.” That means “we’re now looking at a period in which prices move more or less sideways, or increase no more quickly than growth in incomes, over the next few years.”

Stansfield projects a 5 percent gain this year and a 3 percent increase in 2019. That compares with 10.7 percent in 2005, shortly before the crash.

Supply Lines

Some of the most expensive markets, where sales are falling under the weight of prices, are now seeing substantial increases in supply, according to Redfin Corp. In San Jose, California, inventory was up 12 percent in June from a year earlier. It rose 24 percent in Seattle and 32 percent in Portland, Oregon. Those big jumps are from low numbers, so the housing crunch is still a serious problem.

“Inventory has increased quite a bit,” Godwin, the Seattle agent, said. “We’re seeing less competition.”

Dustin Miller, an agent with Windermere Realty Trust in Portland, said he’s trying to manage sellers’ expectations, something he hasn’t had to do since the end of the last housing boom. One customer, a baby boomer moving to a new home across the state, expected to have buyers fighting over her house. She got one bid, below her asking price.

“Buyers want to shop and take some time, as opposed to having to rush and throw offers in,” Miller said. “It’s the market correcting itself. At some point, you hit a peak of momentum, and then things level off.”

This new wariness was noticeable in the latest consumer-sentiment data from the University of Michigan. In its preliminary July survey, 65 percent of Americans said it’s a good time to buy a home, the lowest since 2008, when the economy was still in recession.

Still, market watchers note that the housing sector has strong support from a healthy labor market and steady economic growth, which indicates a stabilizing trend for home prices rather than anything close to the experience of the crisis, when property values plunged.

“The rate of home sales, new and existing, has probably peaked,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “But it’s not going to roll over. It will gently decline.”

New Record

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data hint at the softening. The 20-city index of property values rose 6.6 percent in the 12 months ending in April. After seasonal adjustments, the gauge posted its smallest monthly increase in 10 months, with New York, San Francisco and Washington reporting declines.

Homeownership still remains out of reach for many Americans, especially for first-time and younger buyers. For existing homes, the median price climbed in June to a record $276,900, while properties typically stayed on the market for 26 days, unchanged from the prior three months, according to the National Association of Realtors.

“Affordability is becoming a major headache for homebuyers,” said Lawrence Yun, the association’s chief economist. “You are seeing home sales rising in Alabama, where things are affordable. But in places like California, people aren’t buying.”

In addition, “no one knows how far and how fast” borrowing costs may rise as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, Stansfield said. Lenders and borrowers alike are less likely to let credit spiral out of control than in 2005 and 2006. And with financing tighter and wage gains in check, “there’s not much scope for prices to continue to increase sustainably” at recent rates, he said.

The cooling, in turn, could curb housing starts, “because builders tend to only build what they think they can confidently sell,” Stansfield said. At the same time, he said, “it will decrease the risk of a bust.”

The US housing market has an inventory problem

Tight supply, rising prices undercut on U.S. home sales

By Lucia Mutikani,Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. home sales unexpectedly fell in January, leading to the biggest year-on-year decline in more than three years, as a chronic shortage of houses lifted prices and kept first-time buyers out of the market.

The supply squeeze and rising mortgage interest rates are stoking fears of a lackluster spring selling season. The second straight monthly drop in home sales reported by National Association of Realtors on Wednesday added to weak retail sales and industrial production in January in suggesting slower economic growth in the first quarter.

“There may be some headwinds ahead for home resales with rising mortgage costs affecting how much the buyer can afford and this could put a damper on existing home sales and take some of the wind out of the economy’s sails,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.

Existing home sales dropped 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million units last month, with purchases declining in all four regions. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales rising 0.9 percent to a rate of 5.60 million units in January.

Existing home sales, which account for about 90 percent of U.S. home sales, declined 4.8 percent on a year-on-year basis in January. That was the biggest year-on-year drop since August 2014. The weakness in home sales is largely a function of supply constraints rather than a lack of demand, which is being driven by a robust labor market.

The shortage of properties is concentrated at the lower end of the market. While the number of previously-owned homes on the market rose 4.1 percent to 1.52 million units in January, housing inventory was down 9.5 percent from a year ago.

That was also the lowest inventory for January on record. Supply has declined for 32 straight months on a year-on-year basis. At January’s sales pace, it would take 3.4 months to exhaust the current inventory, up from 3.2 months in December.

A six-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand. The median house price increased 5.8 percent from a year ago to $240,500 in January, marking the 71st consecutive month of year-on-year price gains.

The PHLX housing index <.HGX> was trading higher, tracking a broadly firmer U.S. stock market. The dollar <.DXY> strengthened against a basket of currencies as yields on shorter-dated U.S. Treasuries rose.

 

ECONOMIC GROWTH RISK

“It looks likely that real residential investment will decline in the first quarter and we see downside risk to our forecast for 2.5 percent real GDP growth during the quarter,” said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

The economy grew at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter. Making housing expensive for some first-time home buyers, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to an average of 4.38 percent last week, the highest level since April 2014, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. It was up from 4.32 percent in the prior week.

Mortgage rates are increasing in tandem with U.S. government bond yields on worries about rising inflation. In contrast, wage growth remains stuck below 3 percent on an annual basis despite the unemployment rate being at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent.

“We have hoped that the rise in rates motivates home buyers to act soon but the move in rates may have been so drastic that they are now waiting to see if rates start to make a move down,” said Brian Surgener, a senior vice president at BBMC Mortgage in Lombard, Illinois.

“Americans are not saving more and as home prices rise more of a down payment will be needed. So with more savings needed and payments increasing many home shoppers may be back on the fence until we see one of these trends turn around.”

A separate report from the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday showed applications for loans to buy a home decreased 6 percent last week from a week earlier. There are also worries that caps on the deduction for mortgage interest following a recent overhaul of the tax code could hurt demand for houses.

First-time buyers accounted for 29 percent of transactions in January, down from 32 percent in December and 33 percent a year ago. Economists and realtors say a 40 percent share of first-time buyers is needed for a robust housing market.

Economists expect supply to remain tight this year, which together with pricey home loans could result in modest home sales growth in 2018.

But housing supply could improve in the coming months as government data last week showed the number of homes under construction surged to near a 10-1/2-year high in January. Single-family home completions were the highest since June 2008.

In January, houses typically stayed on the market for 42 days, up from 40 days in December and down from 50 days a year ago. Forty-three percent of homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month.

 

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao and Chizu Nomiyama)

US mortgage rates climb to a nearly 4-year peak

By AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — Long-term U.S. mortgage rates jumped this week to their highest level in nearly four years, a sign that the prospect of higher inflation is steadily increasing the cost of borrowing to buy a home.

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages rose to 4.38 percent this week, up from 4.32 percent last week and the highest since April 2014.

The rate on 15-year, fixed-rate loans rose to 3.84 percent from 3.77 percent last week.

Recent wage gains and rising prices are stoking concerns about inflation picking up, which has caused investors to seek higher interest rates. Mortgage rates are closely aligned with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, which has climbed above 2.90 percent from 2.78 percent just two weeks ago.

The low mortgage rates had eased some of the price pressures facing would-be homebuyers. The shrinking inventory of sales listings has caused prices to increase at roughly double the gains in average hourly earnings, making it harder to save for a down payment and purchase a home.

But homebuyers had the benefit of average 30-year mortgages that were 3.78 percent in September. If mortgage rates keep rising at a quick pace, it could limit what people can afford to pay and cause demand for housing to fall.

There’s a brilliant $150 million ‘Teachers Village’ in Newark

from Yahoo Finance! by Melody Hahm Thu, Feb 1 12:56 PM PST

There’s a luxurious 400,000-square-foot complex in downtown Newark with a consignment store, nail salon, fitness center and cupcake shop. At first glance, it might appear to be a glossy page out of a playbook to revitalize the city.

But, the former parking lots were transformed with a very specific demographic in mind. The six buildings actually make up Teachers Village, a new development of three charter schools, a daycare facility, residential apartments marketed to and subsidized for teachers, and retail space that accommodates 20 different businesses.

“I love being around other educators because we can share stories, talk, and learn from each other. One of my neighbors is the head of the Essex County Community College. We’ve been able to work out some things with my middle school kids, introducing them to the idea of college. It’s nice to have this kind of pipeline,” she said. “Plus, the gyms are really nice,” said Irene Hall, Principal of Discovery Charter School, who lives at Teachers Village.

The $150 million, five-year-long project is the brainchild of Ron Beit, founding partner and CEO of Newark-based RBH Group. Having previously focused on commercial and residential projects across Newark, Beit first started playing around with the idea of a Teachers Village in 2007.

“We had a front row seat to the struggles that teachers were facing. We saw that teachers were coming to teach from all over the region, and I got inspired. Once we scratched beneath the surface, we found that only about 15% of teachers lived in Newark,” Beit told Yahoo Finance.

With the help of state tax credits and investments from high net worth individuals and institutional investors like Goldman Sachs, TD Bank and Prudential, RBH Group embarked on a mission to create a space where teachers could live comfortably without feeling burdened by the cost.

Reduced rates for teachers

Teacher’s Village has 204 residential units ranging from studios averaging at $1,000 per month to two-bedrooms that go for $1,900 a month. Seventy percent of the rooms are specifically reserved for teachers and priced 10%-15% cheaper than the aforementioned market rates.

The remaining 30% of the units are open to all others (who have to pay full price). This was part of the financing arrangement, likely to hedge against too many vacancies and underwhelming demand from teachers.

The outreach extends beyond those who work at the charter schools in the neighborhood. The surrounding area houses six different universities, making up a community of 50,000 people.

The mission was to create a vibrant community that operates 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

“When we first started constructing our master plan, the first phase was thinking through the residential, retail and commercial components. With 92% surface parking lot, how could we create a community? We quickly became fixated on housing for teachers and schools would fit the commercial criteria,” said Beit.

After district schools passed on the opportunity to move their schools into the development, Beit connected with three existing charter schools that needed more space and better facilities. They then built a new early childhood learning center for an additional 1,000 students.

Hall, who lives in a one-bedroom unit, said she’s the only Discovery Charter employee who lives in the Village. She hopes to see more of these communities for fellow teachers. Just like popping down the hallway of your college dorm to chat with a classmate, Hall said she’s been able to collaborate with like-minded folks who are just a few doors away.

“It’s a beautiful space. Before, [Discovery Charter] was in the bottom of an alleyway. While we had fixed it up nicely, this is a major upgrade and a great opportunity. It was a no-brainer, really,” she said. “It brings a lot of attention to the school and we love being a part of this community.”

Addressing the plight of teachers

It’s a universally shared sentiment — educators like Hall are responsible for molding the future minds of America and are therefore invaluable members of society. Yet, they aren’t well compensated.

The average salary of a U.S. high school teacher is $58,030. Middle-school teachers make about $54,720 annually. The average starting salary is closer to $36,000 and often additional degrees or certificate programs are required to earn far beyond that threshold. The vast majority make too much to qualify for low-income housing but not enough to live comfortably.

More than one-third of U.S. households live in rental housing. And while the overall market for renters has started to cool down, Americans aren’t feeling flush with cash.

One-half of all renters, or about 20.8 million individuals, are currently cost burdened, which means more than 30% of their income is used on rent and utilities, according to data from Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.

“Cost burden is common among lower-income folks, but if you look back at the last few years, that burden has extended up the ladder to moderate-income renters — those making between $30,000 and $75,000 per household,” said Whitney Airgood-Obrycki of Harvard. Among renters who work in the field of education,22.1% are moderately burned and 13% are severely burdened.

Of course, teachers aren’t alone in feeling overwhelmed by the cost of living, but they are a group that is hit the hardest, said Stockton Williams, Urban Land Institute’s executive director of the Terwilliger Center for Housing.

“The challenge of housing affordability is that a lot of urban school districts are contending with the real barrier of attracting and retaining teachers. It’s part of a much broader story of housing affordability for big segments of the workforce,” he said.

Retaining talent

According to the Learning Policy institute, 90% of open teaching positions are created by teachers who leave the profession. One-third of teachers are retiring, but the other two-thirds leave for other reasons.

“In the high cost urban areas, there’s evidence that the sheer cost of living near these schools is one major reason teachers leave the profession,” said Williams.

And projects like Newark’s Teachers Village are the first step toward providing a practical solution that ultimately helps schools attract and retain talent.

“If urban school districts and individual schools are motivated to keep teachers, they need to enable as many as possible to live near the school. If there are a wider array of housing choices, it’ll help with recruiting new teachers,” he pointed out.

On paper, teachers appear to have it easy with short work days and summers off. In reality, teachers are stretched thin with limited resources and have to put in hours before and after school to make lesson plans, grade papers, attend development trainings, and meet with parents.

“So many teachers work many more hours, on the weekends, early in the morning, late at night. The most dedicated teachers are at the school round the clock. By offering closer housing choices, this makes their lives a little bit easier,” said Williams.

Is this a scalable model?

While Newark’s project is the largest to-date, teacher neighborhoods have been sprouting up across the country over the last few years.

In Baltimore, a former tin can manufacturer has been gutted and transformed into 40 units for teachers, complete with exposed brick walls and bamboo floors.

Last year, the city of San Francisco committed $44 million in public funds toward building 100 to 150 affordable housing units for teachers.

Indianapolis’ school house block

In Indianapolis, a small nonprofit, Near East Area Renewal (NEAR), is working to get teachers on the path toward homeownership. Collaborating with Mayor Joe Hogsett, who ran for office in 2015 promising subsidized housing for teachers, NEAR worked with several contractors to break ground on the project in November. The organization received $2.6 million through a housing partnership with the city and a $500,000 grant from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

The project includes 24 houses that will be rehabilitated or built in a two-block area in St. Clair Place, a neighborhood just east of downtown Indianapolis. Homes will be priced between $130,000 and $180,000. The median value of a home in Indianapolis is $142,300, but NEAR Executive Director John Franklin Hay said houses in St. Clair skew higher and are selling in the $200,000s.

There are two layers of income restrictions — teachers who make less than 120% of Marion County’s median income ($58,000 a year for a single person) are eligible to purchase half of the homes; those who make less than 80% of the county’s median income ($39,000 a year for a single person) can apply to buy the other half.

“Most of Indy’s public schools are within a 3-mile radius of downtown. Teachers can’t afford to live anywhere near downtown. They can’t find safe or adequate housing and have to go way out in the suburbs, driving one and a half hours each way. That’s the perspective we’ve heard,” Hay told Yahoo Finance. “Our interest is in helping teachers plant their roots here and to make it a great place to live.”

Teachers are required to live at their homes for a minimum of five years and will be fined if they sell or transfer the property before then.

The first homes will be available in April, and so far, 120 teachers have attended information sessions and expressed interest, and 13 have submitted applications.

Coming to a city near you?

After its success in Newark, RBH Group is venturing outside New Jersey to develop similar residential units for teachers across America. Beit has even trademarked the name Teachers Village. Currently, RBH has two projects under construction — one in downtown Hartford, Conns., and one in East Humboldt Park in Chicago. Neither development incorporates schools in the complex like the one in Newark.

“Having schools is not a traveling part of our model. But there will be a value-added component at each of our Teachers Villages. We’ll offer all kinds of coursework for the communities that we build in. Our vision is that you can sit in a European-style piazza, sipping on a cappuccino and learn in one space,” said Beit.

In each new market, RBH Group is working with local developers to help with occupancy, design, construction and financing.

“We always looked at this as a dual mission project — community impact with respect to recruiting and retaining teachers, but the other aspect is to catalyze economic development,” said Beit.

 

The hottest housing market of 2017